Tuesday, September 16, 2008

By Bob Markus

Every time I tune in a newscast I'm told that there has been a shift in the polls. "A new poll shows that John McCain and Barack Obama are now dead even," one pundit tells me. "The latest poll shows that Senator McCain has pulled ahead of his opponent in the critical Panhandle of Oklahoma," shouts another. "This just in," intones another voice. "A poll of left handed oral surgeons shows Barack Obama is biting into John McCain's lead. Heh-heh."

I don't want to hear it. I want a poll I can trust. I want a meaningful poll. I want the AP college football poll. Now, the AP poll is not without its flaws, its little quirks. It tends to be a little too static sometimes, too slow to change. Once a team is anointed No. 1, it takes an earthquake to dislodge it. But at least it never told us: Dewey Defeats Truman.

And there are signs the college football writers who vote in the AP poll are becoming a little less unbending. They dropped Georgia out of their preseason No.1 spot despite an opening week victory and dropped the Bulldogs down again following last Saturday's lackluster 14-7 victory at South Carolina. I can't remember when that happened before. I was an AP voter for a few years back in the '80s and I always tried to vote on the basis of what a team had done rather than where I had ranked it the previous week.

Many of my fellow voters, however, seemed to feel that if they had ranked a team No.1 in the preseason poll they were honor-bound to keep it No.1 until it lost a game. Even then they would automatically elevate the No.2 team regardless of how that team had performed, as long as it kept on winning. That's why I've always thought there should be no preseason poll, which is a reflection of how the voters THINK a team will play.

Another guide line I tried to follow was to consider not only how a team played, but who it played. Today, strength of schedule is emphasized in making the pairing for the Bowl Championship Series title game. In fact, it's overemphasized. The formula utilizes both computer rankings and strength of schedule components. But, presumably, the computer rankings already have factored in strength of schedule.

To me, it appears the AP voters have gotten it right so far this year. They properly recognized East Carolina, a team that nobody had in his top 25, for its two upsets of ranked teams, and voted the Pirates into the top 15. They rewarded Southern Cal for its opening blowout of Virginia, moving the Trojans into the top spot, a move USC validated with its romp over Ohio State Saturday night.

Of course, five SEC teams in the top 10 seems a bit much, but that will sort itself out when those five teams--Florida, LSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia start playing one another. First up: No. 6 LSU plays at Auburn Saturday night, and the host Tigers will need more than the three points that were enough to beat Mississippi State last Saturday. If the SEC is the conference of choice for the pollsters, then Tigers is the nickname of choice. In addition to Auburn and LSU, Missouri's Tigers are in the top ten, ranked No. 5.

There's still a long way to go, but Southern Cal seems secure in the No.1 spot. The Pac 10, which in my view was the best conference in the country the last few seasons, is way down this year and only Oregon seems a likely challenger to the powerful Trojans. And the Ducks, for the second year in a row, have lost their starting quarterback. Arizona State appeared to be a top 20 team until losing at home to UNLV Saturday night and California was bounced out of the top 25 by Maryland..

Southern Cal's blowout of Ohio State was pretty predictable. The Buckeyes looked terrible in their win over Ohio the previous week, when they trailed into the fourth quarter, and there's no need to recount their miserable failures in the last two BCS championship games. This simply is not that good a team. So if this is Southern Cal's signature victory of the season there is a chance that somebody--Oklahoma? Missouri? An unbeaten SEC champion?--could leapfrog the Trojans into the No.1 spot. But I can't see USC falling any farther than No.2, which still puts them into the title game.

SECOND THOUGHTS--Brigham Young may have another Heisman Trophy quarterback on its hands in Max Hall, who threw seven touchdown passes in the 59-0 torching of UCLA last week-end. Despite their long history of outstanding passers, which includes Steve Young and Virgil Carter, their only Heisman winner so far has been Ty Detmer. Missouri's Chase Daniel still looks like the front runner. . . .BYU, by the way, could run the table, at least until its final game when the Cougars play Utah in what looks like the Mountain West Conference championship game. The winner could go on to a BCS bowl game. Utah has a win over Michigan under its belt and both teams are ranked in the top 20. . . .Ohio State thought it had seen the last of the Trojans, but its next game will find them once more facing the men of Troy. This time it's Troy University and don't be totally shocked if the Buckeyes lose again. Troy is the only unbeaten team in the Sun Belt conference, which is lightly regarded, but has two victories over BCS teams this year. Arkansas State knocked off Texas A & M in the season opener and Middle Tennessee State upended Maryland a week later. Troy opened its season with a 31-17 win over Middle Tennessee. Regardless of the outcome Saturday, the Buckeyes might not be Troy's toughest opponent this season. The mini-Trojans still have to play at LSU in a game that was postponed by Hurricane Ike. . . .Don't put too much stock in Notre Dame's victory over Michigan. The Irish, who in most previous years would have been highly ranked after opening a season 2-0, received only 4 votes in the AP poll and rightly so. They struggled to beat San Diego State in the season opener and then beat the worst Michigan team I've seen since the late 1960s. That's when Bo Schembechler stepped in and returned the Wolverines to the glory days of Fritz Crisler. I had an early insight into Schembechler's fiery nature when I was paired with him in a golf outing the summer before his first season. I played my usual pathetic golf and Bo wasn't much better. At the end of the first nine he thrust his golf bag at the caddy and sputtered:"I gotta go and recruit."

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